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27 Mar 2024 11:42:23
2024 Predictions
STANDINGS
AL East
Baltimore 97-65
Toronto 88-74
Tampa Bay 86-76
New York 84-78
Boston 72-90
AL Central
Minnesota 85-77
Kansas City 80-82
Cleveland 79-83
Detroit 78-84
Chicago 61-101
AL West
Houston 95-67
Seattle 89-73
Texas 87-75
Oakland 66-96
Los Angeles 65-97
NL East
Atlanta 99-63
Philadelphia 89-73
Miami 80-82
New York 75-87
Washington 69-93
NL Central
Chicago 88-74
Cincinnati 84-78
St. Louis 81-81
Milwaukee 77-85
Pittsburgh 68-94
NL West
Los Angeles 95-67
San Francisco 85-77
Arizona 83-79
San Diego 80-82
Colorado 62-100
PLAYOFFS
Wild Card Round
Texas over Minnesota, 2-0
Seattle over Toronto, 2-1
Chicago over Cincinnati, 2-1
San Francisco over Philadelphia, 2-1
Divisional Series
Houston over Texas, 3-1
Baltimore over Seattle, 3-2
Chicago over Los Angeles, 3-2
Atlanta over San Francisco, 3-1
League Championship Series
Baltimore over Houston, 4-2
Atlanta over Chicago, 4-0
World Series
Baltimore over Atlanta, 4-2
AWARDS
AL MVP - Julio Rodriguez
NL MVP - Mookie Betts
AL Cy Young - Corbin Burnes
NL Cy Young - Spencer Strider
AL Rookie of the Year - Wyatt Langford
NL Rookie of the Year - Kyle Harrison
1.) 16 Apr 2024 19:16:09
I think I vastly over-estimated Chicago's win total.
01 Aug 2023 12:59:21
Trade Deadline Moves
Giants get: OF Teoscar Hernandez
Mariners get: SS Diego Velasquez, RHP Spencer Miles
**This is definitely an overpay for San Francisco, but they might have to get a little desperate to infuse some offense really quick.**
Giants get: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Tigers get: RHP Mason Black, LHP Juan Sanchez, C Onil Perez
**Scott Harris would know the Giants system very well, as he was their GM for a few years. I have zero clue what he would target, but I could easily see a deal being worked out between these two teams.**
1.) 02 Aug 2023 03:04:21
Very suprised Teoscar and Eduardo didn’t get moved. I know Eduardo wanted to stay out East to be close to family but those were two names I was sure would get dealt.
2.) 02 Aug 2023 15:22:26
I'm guessing the Mariners still feel they can compete for a Wild Card spot.
I'm disappointed the Giants didn't do much, but I also get it. They have Estrada and Haniger coming back really soon, so they may not have had much roster space for the moves.
And the price for starting pitching was insane.
I can be okay with them standing pat, keeping the young talent and still going for it.
3.) 03 Aug 2023 01:54:35
Yeah the market was crazy for pitchers. Sellers market forsure.
Mariners are always half in and half out. I’m not sure if they know what they want to do.
Giants are a weird team too but always find a way to win. They have talent in AAA that can come up to.
26 Jul 2023 15:30:32
Giants deadline trades:
1)
Giants get: RHP Max Scherzer
Mets get: RHP Anthony DeSclafani, 2B Brett Wisely, RHP Hayden Wynja, OF Wade Meckeler
2)
Giants get: UTIL Tommy Edman, OF Dylan Carlson
Cardinals get: OF Austin Slater, RHP Landen Roupp, RHP Mason Black, C Joey Bart, OF Vaun Brown
3)
Giants get: RHP Michael Lorenzen
Tigers get: OF Luis Gonzalez
Roster (with certain players getting healthy)
1B- Wade Jr.
2B- Estrada
3B- Davis
RF- Conforto
CF- Carlson
DH- Pederson
LF- Edman
C- Bailey
SS- Crawford
Bench: C/OF Sabol, 2B Flores, OF Matos, OF Yastrzemski
Rotation:
Webb
Scherzer
Cobb
Stripling
Lorenzen
Bullpen:
Doval
Ty. Rogers
Tay. Rogers
Jackson
Alexander
Walker
Brebbia
Manaea
Roster Moves: DFA Jakob Junis, Option David Villar, Casey Schmitt, and Marco Luciano.
1.) 27 Jul 2023 02:55:03
All trades are relatively solid outside of the STL trade. Have to think Carlson/ Edman pull a lot more than that. Cards also have a clog at C/ 1B already likely wouldn’t be interested in Bart. Cards need major league pitching and would look to acquire better pieces in a deal involving those 2.
2.) 27 Jul 2023 04:10:32
I think you need to look into Roupp & Black a bit more. Those guys are legit.
3.) 27 Jul 2023 11:31:46
I’m very aware of both prospects. Black is very solid. Roupp is 24 (way above average age of level) in AA just converted to a full time starter this year and hasn’t eclipsed 4 IP in an outing. Cards are going to be looking for MLB starters for the quality of players they are moving.
4.) 27 Jul 2023 13:11:38
No one is giving them "MLB starters" for league average hitters.
5.) 27 Jul 2023 13:15:05
"Roupp is 24 (way above average age of level) "
That's incorrect.
The average AA pitcher, in 2022, was 24.6 years old. Roupp is right in line with the average age, not "way above it. "
Good piece of advice: look something up before you say it. You're acting like Chi Sox.
6.) 27 Jul 2023 14:23:01
“Class AA (Double-A) - Players are more experienced at this level (average age is 22.3) and more likely to jump from here to the majors. AA teams may include former major leaguers who are there temporarily to recover from an injury or work out a performance problem before returning to the big club. “
My apologies for the slight exaggeration. But your trade with the cardinals is still awful.
7.) 27 Jul 2023 14:27:10
Also, not everyone is against you lol. I remember this site years ago being awesome and active. I come back for the deadline to see only you. I wonder why that is. Take a deep breath and try not to be so toxic. You’ve ruined the site.
8.) 30 Jul 2023 21:31:23
Imagine being so upset that someone called you out for inaccurate information that you accuse them of ruining a website.
Grow up.
27 Apr 2023 19:24:38
This will trigger Chi Sox, but it's legitimately time for the White Sox to rebuild (AGAIN!). After they fire Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams, let's trade the team:
Dodgers get: Tim Anderson (SS) and Lucas Giolito (RHP)
White Sox get: Michael Busch (2B), Nick Nastrini (RHP), Maddux Bruns (LHP), Dalton Rushing (C), Ryan Pepiot (RHP).
Orioles get: Liam Hendriks (RHP)
White Sox get: Cade Povich (LHP)
Padres get: Yasmani Grandal (C), Lance Lynn (RHP)
White Sox get: Jakob Marsee (OF), Reiss Knehr (RHP), Jackson Wolf (LHP)
D'Backs get: Aaron Bummer (LHP)
White Sox get: Dominic Fletcher (OF), Buddy Kennedy (3B)
The White Sox get to keep their outfield intact, and exchange rentals for really good deals.
1.) 30 Apr 2023 12:05:48
Typically, I don't like kicking people when they are down, and the epic Berto rant was enough for me to kinda feel bad for the White Sox.
However, I then remembered the multiple years of laughable, borderline trollish takes from Chi Sox on here and I don't feel bad.
Now I wonder if Chi Sox has gotten up off his knees for long enough to realize that Rick Hahn is and has been a disaster of a GM. But yet, he was so hilariously sure that every GM in baseball was trying to emulate him. LOLOLOLOLOL
Seriously, this White Sox team should thank the Athletics for existing, otherwise they might actually be the worst team in baseball right now.
25 Nov 2022 15:56:06
Free Agent Predictions (sorted by position)
CATCHERS
Willson Contreras- Tigers, 5/100
Omar Narvaez- Red Sox, 2/15
Gary Sanchez- Cardinals, 2/16
Christian Vazquez- Giants, 2/14
FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu- Padres, 2/36
Josh Bell- Astros, 4/48
Brandon Belt- Cubs, 1/10
Trey Mancini- Guardians, 1/8
SECOND BASE
Adam Frazier- Nationals, 1/5
Jean Segura- Mariners, 1/10.5
SHORTSTOPS
Elvis Andrus- Orioles, 1/5.5
Xander Bogaerts- Phillies 7/196
Carlos Correa- Giants, 8/260
Jose Iglesias- Cubs, 1/4
Dansby Swanson- Orioles, 7/175
Trea Turner- Dodgers, 5/185
THIRD BASE
Brian Anderson- Giants, 1/6
Jeimer Candelario- Brewers, 1/6
Justin Turner- Dodgers, 1/10
LEFT FIELD
Andrew Benintendi- Rockies, 3/36
Michael Brantley- Marlins, 2/25
Joey Gallo- Dodgers, 1/12.5
David Peralta- Pirates, 1/5
Jurickson Profar- Astros, 2/20
CENTER FIELD
Cody Bellinger- Tigers, 1/13.5
Kevin Kiermaier- White Sox, 1/10
Brandon Nimmo- Rangers, 6/150
RIGHT FIELD
Mitch Haniger- Giants, 2/32
Aaron Judge- Yankees, 8/340
Wil Myers- Orioles, 1/9
AJ Pollock- Red Sox, 2/22
Matasaka Yoshida- Padres, 3/27
DESIGNATED HITTER
J.D. Martinez- Cardinals, 1/12
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Bassitt- Mets, 3/51
Jacob deGrom- Rangers, 3/117
Zach Eflin- Orioles, 2/30
Nathan Eovaldi- Red Sox, 3/39
Andrew Heaney- Rays, 2/20
Sean Manaea- Cubs, 1/10
Jose Quintana- White Sox, 2/26
Carlos Rodon- Tigers, 5/130
Kodai Senga- Giants, 4/44
Noah Syndergaard- Padres, 2/30
Jameson Taillon- Blue Jays, 3/30
Justin Verlander- Astros, 2/80
Taijuan Walker- Dodgers, 3/40
RELIEF PITCHERS
Kenley Jansen- Giants, 1/14
Craig Kimbrel- Angels, 1/8
Aroldis Chapman- Diamondbacks, 1/7.5
Brad Hand- Mets, 2/15
Taylor Rogers, Cubs, 1/6.5
Will Smith, Mariners- 2/15
1.) 28 Nov 2022 13:13:47
Chi Sox doesn't like that I have Craig Kimbrel making $8M. He thinks it somehow means that I'm inconsistent on my view of Kimbrel.
This is not the case. Rather, it reveals that I see teams like the Angels having a willingness to overpay for mediocre relievers. Bad teams spend money in bad ways.
Then again, no team would ever spend $8M on a mediocre pitcher would they? Like, no one is giving that money to say, Mike Clevinger, right?
2.) 28 Nov 2022 16:41:03
Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right?
Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck!
3.) 28 Nov 2022 16:42:50
Notice how Nate is sly to slowly walk back his take that Kimbrel is quote - "complete garbage". Now he's just "mediocre". In a couple months he'll be "solid", or something like that.
4.) 28 Nov 2022 16:51:28
Nit-picky here, but if Elvis Andrus is willing to take $5.5 million to play second base, he'll 1000% be back with the White Sox. He'll want to play short somewhere.
Plus this leaves no spot for either Mateo or Henderson on that infield. They probably only add 1 more via free agency/ trade.
5.) 28 Nov 2022 17:04:12
He had a 5.04 FIP as a starter in 2022, Hubert. That was the 8th worst FIP among all MLB starters with 100 IP or more.
"Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck! "
Clevinger hasn't had a sub-4 FIP season since 2019.
"Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right? "
He's never spent $8M on a pitcher who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in a given season, no.
If Rick Hahn wanted a guy with a FIP higher than 5, he could have signed Erick Fedde for like a million dollars. He spent 8x as much money.
6.) 28 Nov 2022 17:29:29
Scratch that, it's a 12M guarantee, not 8M. That's a comical overpay.
7.) 28 Nov 2022 21:53:52
Yeah because Fedde and Clevinger have the same upsides. Of course, you're really good at this!
8.) 29 Nov 2022 02:03:18
The 2020 Sporting News Executive of the Year RUNNER UP Rick Hahn just gave $12M to a pitcher who was equal to Erick Fedde, or lesser than at worst.
In the words of Elon Musk: Let that sink in.
Then again, he's the same guy who gave Dallas Keuchel $55M, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised.
9.) 29 Nov 2022 04:39:09
Would you like to make another guarantee like you did for Kimbrel? "Clevinger will have a FIP above x in 2023, feel free to return to this in October. "
FWIW, I would have liked the move a lot more at $8 million than $12 million, but Katz must think he can revive some of the 2017-2020 production (only 156 innings ago) . Katz has earned that opportunity with solid progress with a lot of guys over the last 2 seasons. Clev's xRV numbers pretty clearly show that his stuff and command were better than the 2022 results showed. We'll see - he's their 5th starter, and I like this kind of upside in that slot.
10.) 29 Nov 2022 13:45:31
I would bet good money Clevinger will have a FIP north of 4. He's simply not a $12M pitcher and I will LOL so hard when he is both not very good AND becomes a reason why the clubhouse falls apart, as he did in San Diego.
There were countless pitchers that both had better numbers and likely better outlooks for 2023 than Clevinger, none of whom would cost $12M in 2023.
Unless Reinsdorf is suddenly willing to spend like crazy (he won't), this was a severe waste of the teams' resources.
Here's a bet I'm even more willing to make: Davis Martin will have a better season, including FIP that is a full run higher than Clevinger's, and I don't particularly believe Martin is good.
11.) 30 Nov 2022 13:07:30
Jesus, that should say a full run LOWER. Martin's FIP will be a full run lower. Clevinger's will be the higher FIP.
natedog's banter posts with other poster's replies to natedog's banter posts
25 Jan 2024 13:32:50
Remaining Free Agent Landing Spots:
Cody Bellinger- Cubs, 7/189M
Blake Snell- Giants, 7/200M
Jordan Montgomery- Rangers, 6/120M
Matt Chapman- Padres, 5/95M
Jorge Soler- Blue Jays, 3/45M
J.D. Martinez- Mariners, 2/34M
Brandon Belt- Marlins, 1/10M
Adam Duvall- Angels, 1/8M
Justin Turner- Royals, 1/7.5M
Michael A. Taylor- Twins, 2/12M
Gary Sanchez- D'Backs, 1/6M
Tommy Pham- Padres, 1/10M
Amed Rosario- Giants, 2/15M
Alex Wood- White Sox, 1/12M
Joc Pederson- Mets, 1/15M
Tim Anderson- Angels, 1/12.5M
Yasmani Grandal- Rays, 1/10M
David Peralta- Padres, 1/7M
Carlos Santana- Guardians, 1/5M
Hector Neris- Yankees, 3/40M
Ryne Stanek- Dodgers, 2/20M
Noah Syndergaard- Pirates, 1/8M
24 Aug 2023 02:27:40
Rick Hahn fired LOL.
I was confidently told that every MLB GM was trying to emulate Hahn.
1.) 21 Sep 2023 19:10:08
And then they hire Chris Getz LMAOO.
This is like dumping your girlfriend only to start dating her less-attractive sister.
06 Apr 2023 20:57:09
What an embarrassing, EMBARRASSING series for the White Sox versus the Giants.
The White Sox:
-Gave up 13 (THIRTEEN!) home runs
-Lost by a margin of 13-31
-Had a position player pitch in TWO of the three games
-They had a player ejected because he didn't understand the new rules
-They had a player get chirpy because the Giants pitched a slider on a 3-0 count to him.
For all the talk Chi Sox did, this was an utterly embarrassing series for his team.
(I won't even bring up his hilarious standards from last year, but if he's willing to be consistent, we know who is the better team now)
1.) 06 Apr 2023 21:16:51
My apologies. A -15 run differential. They were blessed with the Giants mercifully giving them a pitcher on the mound as well (which was the result of the Giants being ahead 16-3 LOL)
2.) 07 Apr 2023 06:03:54
Haha I knew this was coming. Props to the Giants for taking advantage of some brutal Sox pitching this weekend. 13 homers is impressive.
Kopech looked to be tipping and Lynn had God awful stuff. Cease wasn't even close to his best but he's just that good. Aces gonna ace.
I'll take a 4-2 record against the Giants over the last 2 seasons. It was pretty much the opposite in San Fran in '22, except the Sox swept. Giants tried to, but our ace is better than your's.
Both teams have 3 wins this year. I'm not particularly moved by either so far.
"For all the talk Chi Sox did, this was an utterly embarrassing series for his team. "
I'm not sure how this is the case? I picked both teams to miss the playoffs and the Giants just won a series 2-1 in early-April. Go off, I guess?
13 Feb 2023 15:52:35
2023 MLB Predicted Standings
AL EAST:
NY Yankees 99-63
Toronto 91-71
Tampa Bay 83-79
Baltimore 80-82
Boston 77-85
AL CENTRAL:
Minnesota 89-73
Cleveland 86-76
Chicago WS 79-83
Detroit 70-92
Kansas City 61-101
AL WEST:
Houston 98-64
Seattle 92-70
Texas 84-78
LA Angels 73-89
Oakland 54-108
NL EAST:
NY Mets 97-65
Atlanta 95-67
Philadelphia 90-72
Miami 75-87
Washington 57-105
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis 92-70
Milwaukee 84-78
Chicago Cubs 80-82
Pittsburgh 66-96
Cincinnati 60-102
NL WEST
LA Dodgers 95-67
San Diego 94-68
San Francisco 87-75
Arizona 82-80
Colorado 60-102
PLAYOFFS
AL WILD CARD
Minnesota over Cleveland, 2-1
Toronto over Seattle, 2-0
NL WILD CARD
Philadelphia over St. Louis, 2-0
Atlanta over San Diego, 2-1
AL DIVISION
Houston over Minnesota, 3-0
NY Yankees over Toronto, 3-1
NL DIVISION
Philadelphia over NY Mets, 3-2
Atlanta over LA Dodgers, 3-1
ALCS
NY Yankees over Houston, 4-2
NLCS
Atlanta over Philadelphia, 4-0
WORLD SERIES
Atlanta over NY Yankees, 4-2
30 Dec 2022 22:04:57
Per Maria Guardado of MLB.com:
"Our organization was totally unified every step of the way as this unfolded," Zaidi said. "In the initial pursuit, in the negotiation and in unfortunately what happened subsequently. There was complete alignment from ownership to the baseball group to the business side."
Seriously, Chi Sox's post gets worse and worse each time.
EVERYONE was in agreement on each step of the process.
1.) 30 Dec 2022 22:57:26
The alternative here is that Zaidi releases a statement that insinuates tension between ownership and the front office. Even he's not that dumb.
It's cute how naïve you are.
You think public statements from club executives are always an accurate representation of what actually goes on behind closed doors.
Just like how anything that "reputable writers" like Keith Law say in terms of player valuation or biblical.
2.) 31 Dec 2022 02:50:08
Comical for someone who fell for Scott Boras' statements hook, line and sinker to call anyone "naive"
Between this and trying to suggest the Giants operated like an alt-right team, this hasn't been a good stretch of hot takes for you.
I'm a little worried you might be hitting the bottle like TLR. Just stay off the roads, otherwise Jerry Reinsdorf will hire you!
3.) 31 Dec 2022 03:03:31
You're also the same guy who ran with a rumor from Bennet Karoll LMAOOOOOOO.
Bennet Karoll, a shock jock radio host.
Scott Boras, the clown super-agent who literally lied (and changed his story multiple times) to reporters about what happened with the Correa/ Giants saga.
Yeah, I think it's probably safer to assume that Farhan Zaidi, who is probably the most open about what his team is doing to the public & media, is telling the truth.
But you don't want to accept it because it doesn't appeal to your laughable and ridiculous nonsensical takes regarding the Giants.
You've been wrong at literally every point regarding the Correa saga. You continue to embarrass yourself and honestly, I actually feel bad for your family and acquaintances.
16 Apr 2024 19:16:09
I think I vastly over-estimated Chicago's win total.
17 Mar 2024 19:42:41
Man, it's almost as if I was correct in saying that no one was paying the price tag you suggested for a depreciating asset of a pitcher.
Weird that I'm dead right yet again.
14 Mar 2024 15:51:15
OOf. One top 100 prospect and some guys with comically high variance.
The White Sox made a good deal for Cease, but you VASTLY over-estimated that deal.
Makes it kind of difficult to appreciate a good deal when Chi Sox' projection ceiling was the absolute moon+.
29 Jan 2024 13:13:18
LOL. Nothing more "Chi Sox" than finding the most optimistic projection and running with it because it matches your view!
The irony is that the variance in projections upholds the point I'm making, not you. That Cease has range of 0.7 WAR on his projections (a non-insignificant total, according to you) is a pretty large blight against his trade value, no?
The fact that teams don't know which Dylan Cease they are getting is precisely why I don't think any of them are making anything remotely close to the trade you've hinted at.
22 Jan 2024 12:51:52
"He's cooked. "
Look, I know you're more interested in arguing in bad faith (it's all you know how to do), but this is a bad look, even for you.
Saying there's not confidence he'll get to those 2021-2022 numbers again doesn't mean he's cooked. There's still, as you have put it, a solid pitcher there.
But teams aren't gutting the upper part of their farm system for a "solid pitcher. " Those prices are asking teams to believe they can get the 2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease again. Is there a team that feels that way? Possibly, but I'm not banking on it.
That's been my point. You have to reflect how teams will likely feel about Cease GOING FORWARD. The projections don't even believe he'll return to those old seasons in 2024. I seriously doubt teams will believe, especially when it costs them the return you're saying it will.
It's just not going to happen.
The White Sox have an avenue to get a really, really good return for Dylan Cease. But if this is what they continue to insist on, they are going to watch his value continue to tank.
But then again, this is what we should expect from the White Sox, who think that hiring the guy their FIRED GM hired was a good idea.
21 Sep 2023 19:10:08
And then they hire Chris Getz LMAOO.
This is like dumping your girlfriend only to start dating her less-attractive sister.
06 Apr 2023 21:16:51
My apologies. A -15 run differential. They were blessed with the Giants mercifully giving them a pitcher on the mound as well (which was the result of the Giants being ahead 16-3 LOL)
30 Mar 2023 12:30:18
"If Conforto has "30 HR potential" (playing half his games in SF, mind you) with a 15 total projection from THE BAT X, then boy, the White Sox have 8 regulars with 30-homer potential too. "
For someone who LOVES projections*, you sure seem to ignore the realities, don't you?
Of course Conforto is going to be around 15-19 HR via projection systems. The systems can't operate knowing if he's healthy. They can't account for changes he made. Conforto had 14 HR in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. Why would any projection, mathematically, give him a number in the 20s? That makes no sense.
His four seasons prior: 27, 28, 33, 27 (it was 9, but adjusted to 27 for 162 games) . Dang, it's almost like, I don't know, Michael Conforto has 30-home run potential.
Crazy how that works.
*Chi Sox only loves projections when they are favorable to his argument. And he consistently uses the most favorable for White Sox, and the least favorable for the Giants.
30 Mar 2023 12:25:54
As far as Manaea is concerned, no one has accused you of paying attention, so I won't begin to do so either.
However, a few notes:
1. He worked with Driveline this offseason and the effects were pretty obvious this Spring. His velocity is up by 3mph.
2. Manaea has really focused on his sinker, which has been highly effective. That sinker is why the Giants acquired him. It's why they went for Alex Cobb. It's why they like Alex Wood. They seem to know what they are doing when it comes to guys with sinnkers.
3. Cherry-pick whichever bizarre metric you'd wish, here's what we know about Manaea's 2022 season (which, frankly, doesn't matter anymore) : he was a full run LOWER by xERA. He was a half-run lower by FIP. I won't use xFIP with you, because now that it is no longer favorable to your argument, you dismiss is (again, you're the most predictable person ever) .
But surprise, surprise, nearly every projection has Manaea performing at his xERA from 2022. I suspect if they were able to quantify the changes he made this winter, that number would be even lower.
You've already convinced me you don't know what you're talking about, you don't have to continue to sell the point.
30 Mar 2023 12:16:30
ZiPS projected the Giants to win 87 games.
They projected the White Sox to win 74.
But I can fully understand why you'd all of a sudden dismiss ZiPS. I don't entirely blame you.