MLB Trade Rumors

27 Nov 2024 15:33:17
Yankees Ideal Offseason (2nd Edition)

Trades

Trade #1

Cubs get Marcus Stroman and George Lombard Jr.

Yankees get Cody Bellinger

Trade #2

Rockies get Will Warren, Everson Pereira, and Caleb Durbin

Yankees get Ryan McMahon

Trade #3

Brewers get Ben Rice, Chase Hampton, and Nick Burdi

Yankees get Devin Williams


Free Agency

Resign Juan Soto for 14 years and $630 million

Resign Tommy Kahnle for 1 year and $5 million

Resign Jonathan Loaisiga for 1 year and $2 million

Sign Roki Sasaki for Max International Bonus Pool money allowed

Sign Tanner Scott for 4 years and $56 million


Roster

Lineup

2B Chisholm Jr.
LF Soto
RF Judge
1B Bellinger
DH Stanton
3B McMahon
CF Dominguez
C Wells
SS Volpe

Bench

C Trevino
Utility Cabrera
1B/2B/3B LeMahieu
OF Grisham

Rotation (6 Man)

Cole
Rodon
Sasaki
Gil
Schmidt
Cortes Jr.

Bullpen

Weaver (Multi Inning Fireman)
Loaisiga (Middle Reliever)
Effross (Middle Reliever)
Leiter Jr. (Middle Reliever)
Kahnle (7th Inning Setup Man)
Scott (8th Inning Setup Man)
Williams (Closer)

22 Nov 2024 16:01:45
Free Agent Predictions (players in alphabetical order within position)

Catchers
Kyle Higashioka, Padrses, 2/16
Danny Jansen, Cubs, 3/27
Carson Kelly, Athletics, 1/5
Christian Walker, Yankees, 4/64

1st Basemen
Pete Alonso, Mets, 6/160
Paul Goldschmidt, Astros, 1/16
Anthony Rizzo, White Sox, 1/6
Carlos Santana, Twins, 1/10

2nd Basemen
Gleyber Torres, Angels, 4/60

Shortstops
Willy Adames, Dodgers, 6/165
Ha Seong Kim, Giants, 5/70

3rd Basemen
Alex Bregman, Yankees 7/200
Yoan Moncada, Brewers, 1/5

Outfielders
Michael Conforto, Royals, 2/30
Brandon Drury, Tigers, 1/5
Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers, 4/72
Max Kepler, Giants, 1/6
Tyler O'Neill, Nationals, 3/39
Joc Pederson, Reds, 2/36
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays, 4/70
Juan Soto, Mets, 12/600
Alex Verdugo, Athletics, 1/10
Jesse Winker, Phillies, 2/30

Starting Pitchers
Shane Bieber, Guardians, 2/35
Walker Buehler, Braves, 1/10
Corbin Burnes, Giants, 7/224
Jack Flaherty, Angels, 4/72
Max Fried, Cubs, 6/150
Jake Junis, Nationals, 2/18.5
Yusei Kikuchi, Astros, 3/45
Sean Manaea, Braves, 4/88
Charlie Morton, Tigers, 1/15
Nick Pivetta, Padres, 4/56
Max Scherzer, Royals, 1/20
Blake Snell, Red Sox, 4/140
Justin Verlander, Tigers, 1/20
Trevor Williams, Red Sox, 2/24


Relief Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman, White Sox, 1/6.5
Jeff Hoffman, Angels, 4/44
Clay Holmes, Red Sox, 3/33
Kenley Jansen, Phillies, 2/30
AJ Minter, Giants, 2/22
Jose Leclerc, Cubs, 2/20
Tanner Scott, Rangers, 5/70
Blake Treinen, Rangers, 2/25
Kirby Yates, Blue Jays, 1/10

22 Nov 2024 16:10:56
Walker is a 1B, oops.

18 Nov 2024 23:21:27
White Sox 2024-25 Mock Offseason

Free Agents:

1. RHP Jakob Junis - 2/$20 million
2. OF Max Kepler - 1/$7 million + 2025 club option
3. LHP Jose Quintana - 1/$11 million
4. SS/2B Nicky Lopez - 1/$2 million
5. 1B/OF Mark Canha - 1/$5 million
6. RHP Ryne Stanek - 1/$4 million
7. C Elias Diaz - 1/$5 million

Trades:

Red Sox Get: LHP Garrett Crochet, RHP Steven Wilson
White Sox Get: DH/OF Masataka Yoshida, 2B/SS David Hamilton, 2B/OF Kristian Campbell, OF Braden Montgomery, RHP Jedixon Paez

Marlins Get: OF Oscar Colas
White Sox Get: C Paul McIntosh

Lineup:

1. David Hamilton 2B (L)
2. Masataka Yoshida DH (L)
3. Luis Robert Jr. OF (R)
4. Max Kepler RF (L)
5. Elias Diaz C (R)
6. Andrew Benintendi LF (L)
7. Bryan Ramos 3B (R)
8. Nicky Lopez 2B (L)
9. Miguel Vargas 1B (R)

Bench:
- Mark Canha 1B/OF (R)
- Lenyn Sosa 2B (R)
- Korey Lee C (R)
- Dominic Fletcher OF (L)

Rotation:

1. Jose Quintana (L)
2. Jonathan Cannon (R)
3. Jakob Junis (R)
4. Davis Martin (R)
5. Drew Thorpe (R)

Bullpen:

- Ryne Stanek (R)
- Justin Anderson (R)
- Prelander Berroa (R)
- Gus Varland (R)
- Fraser Ellard (L)
- Jared Schuster (L)
- Ron Marinaccio (R)
- Penn Murphee (R)

19 Nov 2024 12:22:22
You're literally suggesting the White Sox will add nearly SEVENTY MILLION in salary in 2025, after all the reports that the White Sox are seeking to reduce payroll in 2025?

"We're not going to be working heavy in free agency" is a direct quote from Chris Getz himself (NBC Sports Chicago) . Adding seven (7) free agents is the definition of "working heavy in free agency.

After all the haranguing you did about how the White Sox would turn down Paul Skenes himself because he isn't a hitter, because of the "reports", certainly you should take the White Sox GM at his word regarding payroll/ free agency, no?

19 Nov 2024 15:06:33
This puts them $18 million below last season.

19 Nov 2024 18:16:47
Uhh, no it doesn't.

Let's try some simple arithmetic. The running total will be in parantheses. Arbitration are estimates from MLBTR.

Yoshida- 18.6 (18.6)
Benintendi- 15 (33.6)
Robert- 15 (48.6)
Quintana- 11 (59.6)
Junis- 10 (69.6)
Kepler- 7 (76.6)
Canha- 5 (81.6)
Diaz- 5 (86.6)
Stanek- 4 (90.6)
Lopez- 2 (92.6)

Arbitration Players
Vaughn- 6.5 (99.1)
Sheets- 2.6 (101.7)
De Los Santos- 1.8 (103.5)
Lambert- 1.2 (104.7)
Anderson- 1.1 (105.8)
Foster- 0.9 (106.7)
Murfee- 0.8 (107.5)

Now we got to add in buy outs, which work against the 2025 numbers:
Moncada- 5 (112.5)
Brebbia- 1.5 (114)
Jimenez (CHW agreed to pay the buyout in the trade) - 1.5 (115.5)
Stassi- 0.5 (116)
Maldonado- 0.25 (116.25)

So at first glance, it looks like it's under the 125M number, by about 9 million. But unfortunately, we're not done.

The White Sox also have to factor in benefits and pre-arb players, as well as MLB Bonus Pool money (all of which was factored into the 2024 payroll) :

Per RosterResource, he's the estimates:
Player Benefits- 17.5 (133.75)
Pre-Arb Salaries- 18.25 (152)
Bonus Pool Share- 1.67 (153.67)

That's $28 million MORE in payroll than 2024.

19 Nov 2024 20:50:53
Why are you factoring in Vaughn, Sheets, De Los Santos, Lambert, Foster? They're not included in the plan. You can't just add $13 million lol. Let's slow down and read bud.

The pre arb salaries are 760k x 15 players, so $11.4 million, not $18.25 million. Then 18.25 by RR is assuming the roster they currently have.

If you're going off RosterResource, they were at $150 million last year, so even if you factor in the player benefits & bonus pool share, we're at $135 million, so 15 million under, not 18. You found $3 million.

Happy to help you with the details.

20 Nov 2024 11:02:57
"If you're going off RosterResource, they were at $150 million last year"

Cots has the CBT payroll at $131M
Spotrac has it at 125M

I have no clue how Jason Martinez/ RR found 19-25M more than those two, but it's pretty clear his number is much higher than the rest. If we go by the consensus, the White Sox are spending more money in 2025 than they did in 2025.

EVEN IF you desire to use the highest payroll you can find to defend the spending, we still have a problem, and it's the pesky little quote from Chris Getz:

"We're not going to be working heavy in free agency"

Adding seven free agents kind of goes against that, now doesn't it?

21 Nov 2024 15:54:57
"EVEN IF you desire to use the highest payroll you can find to defend the spending"

My guy, you're the one that used RR to break down the Sox payroll, and you were way off with your "simple arithmetic". I'm just referencing your point of reference.

Spotrac and Cots are not factoring in the buyouts they paid last offseason (Liam Hendriks, etc. ) . Point is, if you're consistent as to what exactly is counted (from last year to what I have proposed this year), I'm at least $15 million under.

You're also taking that Getz quote out of context. He was asked by Steve Stone on air about big names like Juan Soto and how their largest all-time commitment is Andrew Benintendi. Stone knew the answer, but he just wanted Getz to say it.

Sure, 7 Free agents is busy, but they average $6 million AAV. Quintana and Stanek were admittedly late adds - they could be purged here to bring '25 commitments to just $29 million.

This could also be what I would do (realistically) as White Sox GM, not necessarily a prediction. Getz may have a mandate to keep the payroll well under $100 million. That doesn't make me wrong, it's just not how I (or maybe even Getz) would go about this rebuild.

You're getting big mad about finances, but clearly don't understand the details of an MLB payroll. You've not included buyouts, included non-tendered players, added too much pre-arb money, etc. Don't worry, I'm here to help.

21 Nov 2024 18:05:04
"This could also be what I would do (realistically) as White Sox GM, not necessarily a prediction. Getz may have a mandate to keep the payroll well under $100 million. That doesn't make me wrong, it's just not how I (or maybe even Getz) would go about this rebuild. "

If I'm not mistaken, you got big mad about me proposing a completely fair, but hypothetical trade idea all because it doesn't give the White Sox bats, mostly due to it going against what Getz has reportedly stated he was looking for.

But now, you go on and ignore what Getz actually said, in a real quote, and create your own hypothetical and I'm not allowed to call you out for it?

I applaud your commitment to inconsistent standards on this forum. It's about the only thing you do well around here.

21 Nov 2024 18:16:44
"Spotrac and Cots are not factoring in the buyouts they paid last offseason (Liam Hendriks, etc. ) . I'm at least $15 million under. "

Liam Hendriks and the White Sox agreed to pay the buyout over the course of 10 years, which amounts to 1.5M per year.

So you're actually only 1.5M under.

Don't worry, when you need more factually correct information, I'm here to help!

21 Nov 2024 21:41:39
"But now, you go on and ignore what Getz actually said, in a real quote, and create your own hypothetical and I'm not allowed to call you out for it? "

Having trouble reading? I said you took it out of context (shocker) . This is one of your main issues. You don't really know how this stuff works, so important context goes right over your head. There's a difference in me saying that the Sox will looking for hitting headliners for Crochet, per Getz's comments (which, by the way, also makes complete sense when you slow down & think given their current farm system), vs. you taking a Chris Getz quote out of context and thinking it means the same thing. I know we usually have to keep things really simple for you to understand, but my goodness, lol.

"Liam Hendriks and the White Sox agreed to pay the buyout over the course of 10 years, which amounts to 1.5M per year.

So you're actually only 1.5M under. "

You now splicing together what I said leaving out the important context in the middle. Holy hell, this is like talking to a 2nd grader. As long as you're consistent with what is actually included in the payroll (we've demonstrated that the sources vary), I have not spent more money in my plan than the Sox spent last year. Are you able to understand that at this point, or are you still getting confused by all the big, complex numbers that you have to add together? I know it can be hard for ya.

You asked where RR got the extra $. They have Hendriks at 15M, not the 1.5 per year structure. I was providing you an answer to your question. That's not where I'm under though. You didn't understand the concept of what a non-tender is or how pre-arb numbers are calculated, that's where your initial math was off, that's all.

You spent the time listing out the entire Sox payroll from my plan. The only problem was that it was flat wrong.

21 Nov 2024 21:50:31
One other thing you should also know - the benefits & bonus pool allocations are part of their Luxury Tax payroll for league compliance. That is NOT the same value that is reported at the top of the Roster Resource page on FanGraphs ($150 million) . Payroll and luxury tax payroll are not the same, and it may be where you're getting confused across sources.

They were actually at $150 million WITHOUT those benefits paid (or $136.5 million if you correct the Hendriks situation) in 2024. I'm at $115.95 million in my plan (again, no benefits) .

Hopefully you're able to wrap your head around this ultra-complex math I was able to do. I have not spent more money.

22 Nov 2024 15:20:35
"They were actually at 150 million without those benefits"

Shot.

" (or 136.5 million if you correct the Hendriks situation"

Chaser.

That's a difference of 13.5M, which isn't insignificant. Why not just say "they were actually at 136.5M"?

Oh, that's right, because it makes your "they are way under 2024 payroll" when that payroll is reflected at 150M, and not 13.5M less.

22 Nov 2024 16:48:12
Ok, so we've established that my plan at $116 million is less than both 136.5 million and 150 million!

Glad we could finally get you there!

22 Nov 2024 18:16:05
"My plan"

Nice of you to concede that you're not dealing in reality at all.

Glad you finally admit it to the world!

26 Nov 2024 09:10:07
Why do you two like each other so much?

12 Nov 2024 13:12:48
Let's find the Giants a pitcher via trades:

Idea #1:
Giants get: RHP Chris Paddack
Twins get: RHP Landen Roupp, SS Walker Martin

Paddack is owed $7.5M and is a free agent after 2025. Minnesota is looking for some salary relief, but also guys they can build with. Roupp gives them 6 years of team control.

Idea #2:
Giants get: LHP Garret Crochet, INF Nicky Lopez

White Sox get: SS Marco Luciano, OF Rayner Arias, RHP Hayden Birdsong, 2B Brett Wisely

I have no idea how the White Sox would feel about this (I'm sure Chi Sox will hate it LOL), but the White Sox would be getting a former top 50 prospect who needs a change of scenery (Luciano), a budding OF prospect in Arias, a solid young pitcher (Birdsong) and a super-utility player to replace Lopez. I think that would be one of the better packages offered for Crochet, honestly.

Idea #3:
Giants get: LHP Jesus Luzardo
Marlins get: Same package as above.

The Marlins may be more willing to take on such a deal as Assistant GM Gabe Kapler would be more than familiar with the Giants team. As would new hitting coach Pedro Guerrero. The names might change, but I think it'd be something similar. Luzardo's health is going to be a serious question mark, still.

Idea #4
Giants get: RHP Sonny Gray, OF Lars Nootbaar.
Cardinals get: LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Trevor McDonald, OF Rayner Arias, OF Wade Meckler

The Giants would be saving the Cardinals around $50M here, after all the salaries clear, but that's going to cost the Cardinals something in the form of Nootbaar. The Cardinals also get a slew of young talent to help in their soft rebuild.

Idea #5
Giants get: RHP Brandon Woodruff
Brewers get: OF Dakota Jordan, RHP Mason Black

Woodruff is only paid $5M in 2025, but he has a $20M mutual option (a mutual option hasn't been exercised since 2015) with a $10M buyout. That's $15M for Woodruff, a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors since 2023. The Brewers may like to have some salary relief there.

New Giants GM Zack Minasian would be well-familiar with Woodruff, as he was in the Brewers' front office while Woodruff was making his way through their system.

The Brewers are shedding a lot of salary, so the return is minimized, as well as the risk of what Woodruff will be post-surgery, but they could do a lot worse picking up someone like Dakota Jordan, a phenomenal athlete (also played WR at Mississippi State, along with baseball).

13 Nov 2024 00:35:13
Well, I guess the Giants can just sign Nicky Lopez. I think the White Sox could have received *something* for him.

13 Nov 2024 02:47:05
This is a solid troll.

13 Nov 2024 12:17:15
Sorry, I didn't include a trade where the White Sox get Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and eleventy billion dollars for Justin Anderson.

I'll do better next time.

13 Nov 2024 12:22:36
But if you think that the White Sox getting a 50 FV MLB-ready pitcher, a 45 FV outfielder, a former 50 FV SS (who probably needs a change of scenery) plus a super-utility infielder with 5 years of team control remaining for Garrett Crochet is "trolling" then I think you're going to be super disappointed with the return the White Sox get for him.

But hey, speaking of being "brash" and "off-putting". Hello, pot, please meet kettle.

13 Nov 2024 17:23:40
I don't know, wild concept, but maybe one of the bats the Sox get back would be coming off at least a league average season in return for their ace pitcher?

Marco Luciano needs a lot more than a change of scenery. Learning how to hit in the upper minors and at least put up competitive MLB at-bats would be a good start.

Giants don't really match up well for Crochet. Eldridge would need to headline, but they'll likely seek an up-the-middle-bat. If the best asset coming back is a "50 FV MLB-ready pitcher", that's not what the White Sox are looking for.

That fact that you think Luzardo and Crochet have the same trade value currently is laughable.

13 Nov 2024 20:00:37
I didn't expect you to agree with the trade, and I'll vehemently disagree both about the return and about Luzardo & Crochet's values.

That we disagree on a player's value doesn't make one "trolling" it just means you disagree. You've become even more unhinged.

For the record, I seriously doubt the Giants are remotely interested in giving up Hayden Birdsong. He showed he has frontline starter potential in several games last season. But I also recognize for a player like Crochet, it'll take a legitimately good prospect. If they can turn 2 years of Crochet into 6 of Birdsong (plus others), they probably win that trade long term.

13 Nov 2024 20:18:09
I think we also have a very recent trade comp for Crochet: Dylan Cease. Crochet will also have 2 years of team control, but Cease had a longer track record of sustained success as a starter.

The trade proposed above is better in almost every way than what the White Sox got for Cease last year. I also think teams who wanted Cease had far less leverage last winter, with the SP market being a whole lot weaker.

Teams that don't like the asking price for Crochet have a dozen equal or better options to turn to this winter. They didn't have those options last winter, and the White Sox still didn't get a tremendous value for the better pitcher.

Do I think the trade happens? No. I don't think the Giants let go of Birdsong. But I think it's pretty similar to what you'll see the White Sox get for him, and realistically, it'll probably be less inspiring than what I suggested.

I would be very surprised if anyone gave up an MLB-ready power hitter for 2 years of Garret Crochet. Maybe someone overpays, but I think it's best you temper your expectations.

13 Nov 2024 20:24:37
And looking back at what you thought the White Sox could get for Dylan Cease is really, really funny. You legit thought the White Sox would get Coby Mayo AND Joey Ortiz for him.

Or Jasson Dominguez AND Luis Gil.

As a bit of friendly advice, you have no right to tell people their trade returns are "laughable" or be insulting/ condescending about it.

Those were awful, and frankly, not even remotely close to the reality of what the White Sox got. So yeah, maybe dial it back a bit, eh?

14 Nov 2024 00:10:44
I know publications are different, but the Sox got 2 top-100 prospects, an OF that put up a 140 wRC+ stateside at 18 years old, and a solid MLB reliever for Cease coming off a 3.70 FIP.

Crochet has the same control and is coming off a season that was more than a FULL RUN better than that - 5th best in MLB (min. 100 IP) .

"The trade proposed above is better in almost every way than what the White Sox got for Cease last year. "

See this is why I say that you're trolling. You can't honestly believe this, can you? Crochet is objectively better than Cease was with the same control. Even if Crochet only matched Cease's package (he will beat it), who are the 2 top-100 prospects in your Giants package?

The Baltimore package was an over shot, Yankees package for Cease pre Gil's '24 wasn't too bad. The Sox went with 2 back half top-100 arms instead of a stronger headliner (Dominguez) and a wild-card (Gil) . In hindsight, Cease was easily worth both of those packages in 2024.

"Teams that don't like the asking price for Crochet have a dozen equal or better options to turn to this winter. They didn't have those options last winter, and the White Sox still didn't get a tremendous value for the better pitcher. "

What? Goodness, lol. Who are 12 starting pitchers better than Garrett Crochet that are reasonably available this offseason? The average fWAR of the top 10 FA SP was 3.4 in 2023. This year it's 3.0. The only comparable SP that has a good shot of being traded is Sonny Gray, who you'd have to pay $65 million over the next two seasons of age 36 and 37 vs. something like $15 million TOTAL for Crochet for his age 26 and 27. C'mon man, the SP market was literally better last year.

Cease's "track record" does not outweigh the disparity between him and Crochet in terms of the season they were coming off of.

And yes, saying that Jesus Luzardo has the exact same value as Crochet is flat-out laughable. That's not being brash or condescending. Just look at like, literally any stat/ metric and you have no argument. Be serious.

I don't doubt Birdsong could be a very good player, it's just not what the White Sox have publicly told us they're looking for. They need bats. I also had the misfortune of checking Brett Wisely's Statcast page. Ouch.

14 Nov 2024 15:01:04
Do your calves hurt from all the backtracking you're doing?

"But, but they were Top 100 prospects"

A 22-year-old MLB who logged 72 innings with an 11.00 K/ 9 is more valuable than both Thorpe and Iriarte, probably combined. Iriarte was incredibly high variance.

Zavala and Arias are probably similar, but you're looking at Arias' numbers with a pretty rough wrist injury that caused him to miss a decent amount of time.

FWIW, the scouting reports clearly like Arias' upside a whole lot more, with literally 50+ upside at every major tool (hit, game power, raw power, speed, fielding) . I'd be curious to see what he does now that his wrist injury is supposedly healed up.

14 Nov 2024 15:32:55
Let me ask this:

Which elite, middle-of-the-order bat do you think a team would ACTUALLY give up in a trade? I'm curious to see what kind of value you think Crochet has. Let's see your trade idea, since you know, you totally nailed Dylan Cease's value last winter LMAO (defending the value in hindsight, by looking at his 2024 numbers has to be the worst, laziest argument you've made yet, which is really impressive, honestly. )

I'm eager to see your: Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo, or Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie for Crochet trade ideas LOL.

14 Nov 2024 15:38:45
Again, Birdsong is a good prospect, but it does not matter in this context. It's not what they're looking for. They're also not looking to headline the trade with a guy that just put up a 98 wRC+ in the complex league with a wrist injury that we're banking on getting healthy. Getz will simply take the handful of better offers that he probably has on his desk right now.

K/ 9 is also a fantastic stat to use for someone that also walked 43 in those 72 IP.

14 Nov 2024 16:53:03
Yes, everyone is aware of what the White Sox desire in such a trade. They also said they were looking for "three premium prospects" last year for Dylan Cease. (Source: Joel Sherman, Jan 5, 2024).

According to Jon Heyman, it was the "sun and the moon" (Source: Jan 25, 2024)

They did not, in fact, get "three premium prospects" for Cease. They also did not get the "sun and the moon". They got one premium prospect and some interesting players with upside, which is still a good trade.

So yes, I'm aware of what the White Sox want in such a trade. I'm just proposing that they will not get what they fully desire in any such trade, as was also the case in the Cease trade and literally any trade in the history of baseball. I expect Getz to set his sights high and then come back to reality.

I would wait for you to do the same, but sadly, I'm learning that day has still not come, nor will it ever.

14 Nov 2024 17:04:25
"K/ 9 is also a fantastic stat to use for someone that also walked 43 in those 72 IP. "

Yes, because you know, the K-BB% for Thorpe and Iriarte is so great LMAO.

Thorpe - 2.1 K-BB%
Iriarte - -6.7 K-BB% (Yes, that's a negative) . A 12.2% in AA.

But yes, Hayden Birdsong carrying a 14.3 K-BB% rate in his first stint of Major League Baseball isn't good. I mean, it certainly wasn't the same number or better as Dylan Cease, Zack Wheeler (for, like 3 seasons), Cole Ragans, Logan Webb, Corbin Burnes.

I used K/ 9 to denote that a guy walking into the league and striking out batters at such a rate is pretty solid, and Birdsong would immediately be a top 2 pitcher in that team.

Again, I agree, such a trade wouldn't happen, mostly because I don't see the Giants giving up Birdsong in that deal. I think they'd prefer to pay for a pitcher in FA and keep Birdsong, but I think it's more than a fair deal for Crochet, even if it's not what Chicago claims they want initially.

14 Nov 2024 18:11:32
I'd note that attempting to set Cease's value/ asking price through the media is much different than saying "we are looking for hitters in exchange for Garrett Crochet".

14 Nov 2024 21:24:49
I'd note that I literally gave the White Sox three hitters in exchange for Garrett Crochet, along with one very, very, very good pitcher (who, without Crochet in their rotation, would probably be the White Sox #1 or #2 pitcher immediately) .

If you don't like those specific hitters, cool. I don't care. Your track record of assessing hitters isn't exactly great, so you shouldn't be surprised that I've largely ignored them. Have a greater track record on that front and maybe you'll be worth listening to.

I should also note that I even pointed out you wouldn't like the trade. As is the case, you don't really like trades that don't involve the White Sox getting 150% more than the max value of a player, so yeah, I knew you wouldn't like it.

But as was the case with the Cease trade, I told you, matter of factly, that Cease wasn't going to get anything close to the offers you predicted. I'm telling you: prepare to be disappointed in the return for Garrett Crochet.

I suspect you'd be wishing they even get the return I proposed for him when all is said and done.

15 Nov 2024 07:21:13
"I'd note that I literally gave the White Sox three hitters in exchange for Garrett Crochet"

Yeah, so the thing is, my sources tell me that the White Sox are in fact looking for *good* hitters in exchange for their bonafide ace, super cheap young SP with multiple years of control. Shocking, I know.

Your package was a high ceiling, low floor SP that some project to wind up in the bullpen due to a lack of control/ command (not sure how we've gotten all the way up to a "very, very, very good pitcher", but I digress), a former top prospect that's done little-to-nothing above high-A (albeit still young, has mightily struggled on both sides of the ball in MLB), a guy who just put up a 98 wRC+ in the complex league that has solid looking tools but no record of those manifesting into on-field production - banking on an injury healing in 2025, and finally a AAAA utility guy.

If you're confused as to why this would get Buster Posey's number blocked if this was his offer for Garrett Crochet, then I'm not sure you have even the slightly idea of what you're doing here (the years of evidence is certainly growing to support that) . It's not about getting 150% of Crochet's value, but this is something like 25-50%. It's not close.

"I suspect you'd be wishing they even get the return I proposed for him when all is said and done. "

Oh sure, we will revisit this.

Lastly, I was very directly told by you that K-BB% was not a great stat and that it was bad at predicting YOY progression in regards to Craig Kimbrel. You even discounted it's usefulness because Craig Kimbrel has a similar K-BB% to Hoby Milner, Scott Effross and Jason Adam - who all hilariously broke out the next season. You literally owned yourself. At least you've learned though! It's now apparently a useful stat for ya.

17 Nov 2024 06:43:27
omg, I am just now noticing the Cardinals trade.

What in the world?

18 Nov 2024 12:41:13
"Your package was a high ceiling, low floor SP that some project to wind up in the bullpen due to a lack of control/ command"

Nice of you to quote Eric Longenhagen without citing him. Not that it matters, because that was something Longenhagen wrote about him back in April, something he offered a sort of "mea culpa" about later on, stating he's proven he can be effective against a Big League lineup. He was so good that Longenhagen jumped him from 40 FV to a 50 FV prospect, literally overnight.

Or take Eno Sarris' word for it:
"On the other hand, he has two really good breaking balls, a feel for spin and sits 96 on the fastball. This is the kind of package you can dream about, with elite upside"

If Buster Posey dangled Hayden Birdsong around other front offices, I'm sure he could begin a package for whatever he damn well pleases.

Wanna know why the White Sox would absolutely take a package featuring Birdsong?

Because Brian Bannister and Ethan Katz would push for it. They literally have dudes on the White Sox changing their pitch grips and leg kicks to the way Birdsong does it LOLOLOLOL. (Source: Eno Sarris on X/ Twitter, August 17, 2024) If you don't like Eno's word, you can take the words of Davis Martin himself.

So yeah, I'm not the only one who thinks Birdsong is "very, very, very, very good. " Even the White Sox own pitching coaches think so, as evidence of them using Birdsong as the model for their own pitchers! (Hey, speaking of someone emulating someone. )

Bottom line: no, the White Sox would not be "blocking Buster Posey's number" for them headlining a pitcher they literally model their own pitchers after.

18 Nov 2024 17:24:04
Hitters Nate - the White Sox need hitters in their system.

Hayden Birdsong could be Paul Skenes.

The White Sox are very openly seeking hitters to headline a deal for Garrett Crochet.

Hope this helps!

18 Nov 2024 18:07:36
Yes, we've established what the Chicago White Sox have publicly stated they are looking for in a Garrett Crochet trade.

We've also established that they sought a specific return for Dylan Cease and they did not, in fact, receive it.

"Hayden Birdsong could be Paul Skenes. "

If the White Sox turn down "Paul Skenes" because they are prioritizing hitters (by the way, they aren't going to get "Jackson Merrill" in any such trade, not even close), they are far more incompetent than even I suspected.

The White Sox will take the best deal they get offered. If that's a couple solid pitchers, they will take that return, ten times out of ten.

Hope this helps!

18 Nov 2024 18:09:02
You've still not answered my question. I suspect, at this point, it's because you don't want to look foolish like you did with your Dylan Cease trade ideas:

What hitting prospect (s) do you think the White Sox can reasonably land for Crochet? Let's see those Mayo + Basallo + Gunnar Henderson ideas!

18 Nov 2024 21:59:59
Again, your Cease comparison makes zero sense. It's not a question of whether or not they receive the quality of prospect that they seek, it's literally the type of player. They already have a bunch of major league-ready starting pitching. They want/ need to supplement the system with more bats, that's the whole reason why they're looking to trade Crochet instead of extend him. If the best hitter they could get is Marco Luciano, then they'll just extend Crochet.

It's mind boggling that this is hard for you to comprehend.

"The White Sox will take the best deal they get offered. If that's a couple solid pitchers, they will take that return, ten times out of ten. "

lol, this is 100% false. You don't know what you're talking about here.

03 Oct 2024 06:11:22
Cincinnati Reds Moves

Trade:
To Jays
Encarnacion- Strand
Marte

To Reds
Bo Bichette

To A's
Hinds
Aquiar
Spiers

To Reds:
Rooker

To Dodgers
Candelario
Richardson
Fraley

To Reds
Buehler
T. Hernandez


Give Reds a lineup of

1- Friedl LF
2- McLain 2B
3- De La Cruz CF
4- Rooker RF
5- Bichette
6- Steer 1B
7- Stephenson C
8- India 3B
9-France DH

Rotation:
1- Greene
2- Lodolo
3- Buehler
4- Abbott
5-Lowder


Pen:
Cruz
Diaz
Farmer
Gibaut
Martinez
Moll
Suter
Ashcraft

Bench:
Espinal
Maile
Martini
Benson

04 Oct 2024 22:21:48
Buehler and Hernandez are both free agents this winter.

22 Dec 2023 17:44:51
Some Dylan Cease Trade Packages:

Baltimore Orioles:

Coby Mayo 3B/1B/RF
Joey Ortiz SS
Trace Bright RHP
Carlos Tavera RHP

New York Yankees:

Jasson Dominguez OF
Oswald Peraza SS
Luis Gil RHP
Luis Velasquez RHP

New York Mets:

Drew Gilbert OF
Jett Williams OF/SS
Dominic Hamel RHP
Nate Lavender LHP

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Emmett Sheehan RHP
Andy Pages OF
Ricky Vanasco RHP
Hunter Feduccia C

Cincinnati Reds:
Noelvi Marte INF
Chase Petty RHP
Hunter Hollan LHP
Hector Rodriguez OF

Boston Red Sox:

Ceddanne Rafaela UTL
Nick Yorke 2B
Wikelman Gonzalez RHP
Chase Meidroth 3B

Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver RHP
Hurston Waldrep RHP
Vaughn Grissom SS/2B
Luis Sanchez INF

Arizona Diamondbacks:

*With Eloy Jimenez also included*

Druw Jones OF
Tommy Troy 2B
Yu-Min Lin LHP
Spencer Giesting LHP
Wilderd Patiño OF

04 Jan 2024 12:35:35
This sort of gigantic haul would make sense if the White Sox were trading away the 2022 version of Dylan Cease.

Cease has two years of team control and still maintains tremendous upside, but there's no chance a team is paying this sort of price for Cease after the 2023 season he had.

I think Cease makes more sense as a trade deadline guy, as teams will want to see what he's done and there may be more desperation.

14 Jan 2024 17:16:13
Cease's 3.7 fWAR was the 18th best among pitchers in 2023. His 12.6 fWAR is the 8th best over the last 3 seasons.

His ERA was 2.38 runs higher in 2024 despite only 0.62 rise in FIP. He suffered a 70-point (! ) BABIP rise.

He was better in 2022, but he's still an ace.

15 Jan 2024 19:12:40
Dylan Cease's projections put him around similar production to Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga.

He's a solid pitcher, but no one is gutting the top-end of their farm system for him.

15 Jan 2024 22:07:19
He nets a top-50 player and another in the top 85-120.

15 Jan 2024 22:14:30
"He's a solid pitcher" - yes, the 8th best in baseball over the last three years. Very solid indeed.

16 Jan 2024 02:10:07
No one is paying that price for a player who projects to be as good as Marcus Stroman next year LMAOOOO.

They could still get a really good return for Cease if they realize that Cease is not going to repeat his 2022. All projections have him as worse than 2023. But if they want to demand 2022 prices, then they can screw up their shot at getting on with their rebuild.

That window closed FAST!

16 Jan 2024 02:55:03
What about Cease, heading into his age 28 season, makes you so confident that his best days are behind him despite him being a consistent 1 or 2 starter over the past 3 seasons?


They should demand a price for a guy that has been the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons who still has a TON of upside. If they don't get it, then wait until the deadline. The guy has never been close to the IL. He struggled mightily through stretches last season and still wound up with a top-20 season for a SP. He's a stud.

He's 4.3 wins better than Stroman over the last three seasons & Steamer has Cease more than a half-win better than Stroman in '24. The comparison makes no sense - not sure what you're getting at.

16 Jan 2024 03:42:02
Being projected as a a “half-win” better than Stroman for 2024 is kind of making my point. Teams aren’t giving up anywhere close to the return you’re suggesting for a guy who is barely projected to be better than Stroman or Imanaga.

You’re asking teams, who are already hesitant to give up massive returns by way of prospects, to give up huge returns for a guy coming off a pretty bad year and projected to be worse in 2024.

There is just no reason for any team to do that. And there’s no reason for the White Sox to further diminish Cease’s value. They HAVE to drop the asking price. There’s a good return out there for Dylan Cease. But it’s foolish if this is what they insist on.

16 Jan 2024 12:19:14
It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million, there's a ton of surplus here. Are there only 17 pitchers coming off anything better than a "pretty bad year"?

plus the Sox holding Cease could hurt his value, or it could help. He could very well be more valuable in July than he is now if he returns to '22 form, and there's no reason to suggest why he can't do that.

Luis Castillo is a good package comp here. Very similar age, production, control.

16 Jan 2024 13:19:46
"It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million"

That's not true, though, because you're ALSO giving up multiple of your top prosepcts to land Dylan Cease. So you're losing a ton of value there.

In each of these trades, you have teams giving up 18-24 years of team control for two years of control on Cease. At even 1.0 WAR per season of control, that's 18 WAR for, what, 5-6 WAR over the next two?

You're asking teams to pay 3-4 times what Cease is likely to give you? Yeah, that's ludicrous. No team is going to pay that right now.

17 Jan 2024 13:55:17
Yes, this is how trades work my man. lol.

The team is acquiring a current frontline starter at a crazy low salary in exchange for prospects who may turn out to produce 18 WAR, but may also never make the major leagues. Don't overthink this for the sake of arguing.

17 Jan 2024 16:35:52
Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections.

That's not "overhinking this for the sake of arguing. " It's telling you the reality: Dylan Cease is not as valuable as you think he is.

Then again, you thought Rick Hahn was the greatest GM of all-time, and we all saw how that ended. Maybe your opinions aren't as great as you think they are.

17 Jan 2024 21:34:31
"Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections. "

The Mariners very recently did this exact thing for Luis Castillo.

The Astros traded their top 2 prospects for a 40 year old Verlander.

etc, etc.


He's the 8th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last three seasons that still possesses additional upside on essentially a 2-year, $20 million contract. You're lost, per usual.

18 Jan 2024 17:30:58
You're willfully ignoring a crucial detail: Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo were both better pitchers than Marcus Stroman, by a considerable margin.

Dylan Cease is likely not that much better.

No one, I repeat NO ONE, cares what Dylan Cease's 2022 fWAR was. It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him, between the extremely low BABIP and the low HR/ FB%. They all can see that Cease isn't going to match the production again.

Again, the White Sox could get a really solid return for Dylan Cease. There's a solid return that is far less than what you're suggesting for him.

But if Chris Getz doesn't get real with the pricetag, he's going to pull a Rick Hahn and completely bungle the window of opportunity he has before him.

19 Jan 2024 04:35:23
"It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him"

His '21 fWAR was higher, yet I'm the one who's "willfully ignoring a crucial detail". Again, he's the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the LAST THREE SEASONS. It's not a fluke.

Cease has made 97 start over the last three seasons and has put up a 12.6 fWAR. He will pitch 2024 at 28 years old.

In the 97 starts before Castillo was traded, he put up a 12.9 fWAR and he was traded at 29 years old. The return should be almost identical.

Those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Nate.

20 Jan 2024 13:51:32
I don't know what part of "his 2022 stats don't matter" made you not only ignore that part, but you went FURTHER BACK in your assessment.

Teams absolutely will not care what Dylan Cease did in 2021, either. I seriously don't know why that's so hard for you.

He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher who was in the 32nd percentile in HardHit% and 23rd in EV. His chase rate went down. His velocity went down. The HardHit% and avg. EV went UP.

Things aren't trending the right way, and thus, we get a pretty lousy projection for him.

Could he buck that trend? Of course he could. But no team is going to give up the premium to bet against that trend.

As far as "fluke" goes, go look at his Statcast metrics. 2023 was directly in line with every other season he's had. 2022 was a fluke and, again, the projections pretty much seem to reflect this.

2021 was a higher fWAR because his K-rate was a full 1.18 K/ 9 higher and his walk-rate was lower. His K/ BB% was 2.4% better in 2021.

It's almost like, and hear me out, the trends have continued to get worse! Man, those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Geronimo.

21 Jan 2024 15:47:01
I'm not denying that his '23 peripherals were worse, but calling a 4.4 WAR season a "fluke" when it was bookended by a 4.5-win season and a 3.7-win season is kinda funny. You're just talking.

His Statcast metrics fell off the table in '23, and yet he still put up a 3.7-wins season and was a top-20 pitcher in baseball. What does that say about how good he is? If those bounce back even a little bit in 2024, he's a 4+-win pitcher once again.

And you think that teams only care about 2023 performance when evaluating players? 2022 and 2021 can just be completely thrown out? That's ridiculous.

Take the Castillo return (which is clearly a pretty great comp) and work from there. Yet there's no pressure to trade him now. Even you agreed with that.

21 Jan 2024 23:29:09
Castillo wasn't coming off a significant downward trend in his Statcast metrics when he was traded, Cease is. Hence why your comparison isn't working here.

The Cease situation is awkward. There's no pressure to trade him now, but every day he plays in a White Sox uniform is a day closer to free agency for his acquiring team. A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off.

The White Sox also have to bank on Cease bucking the projections by a rather hefty margin.

Could he get there? Of course he *could* (I'm not bankning on it) . But this is all getting to where I've been: there's no one who is making that trade NOW. And likely not many who will make that trade later on.

And no, teams aren't going to care about what a pitcher did THREE SEASONS AGO. They might factor it in when running their projections, but that's about it. Dylan Cease's 2021 numbers are about as irrelevant to teams as Brandon Crawford's 2021 numbers.

Teams aren't getting 2021 or 2022 Dylan Cease. They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore.

22 Jan 2024 01:01:31
"A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off. "

Right, and this is why Castillo and Cease, despite some concerns with Cease's stuff in '23, are more equivalent than you think given Cease has another half-season of control.

"They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore. "

Yeah, that one mph of lost velo is long gone for the 28 year old who has never been on the IL. He's cooked.

22 Jan 2024 12:51:52
"He's cooked. "

Look, I know you're more interested in arguing in bad faith (it's all you know how to do), but this is a bad look, even for you.

Saying there's not confidence he'll get to those 2021-2022 numbers again doesn't mean he's cooked. There's still, as you have put it, a solid pitcher there.

But teams aren't gutting the upper part of their farm system for a "solid pitcher. " Those prices are asking teams to believe they can get the 2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease again. Is there a team that feels that way? Possibly, but I'm not banking on it.

That's been my point. You have to reflect how teams will likely feel about Cease GOING FORWARD. The projections don't even believe he'll return to those old seasons in 2024. I seriously doubt teams will believe, especially when it costs them the return you're saying it will.

It's just not going to happen.

The White Sox have an avenue to get a really, really good return for Dylan Cease. But if this is what they continue to insist on, they are going to watch his value continue to tank.

But then again, this is what we should expect from the White Sox, who think that hiring the guy their FIRED GM hired was a good idea.

26 Jan 2024 20:23:01
ZiPs has Cease twice as valuable as Stroman. LOL!

29 Jan 2024 13:13:18
LOL. Nothing more "Chi Sox" than finding the most optimistic projection and running with it because it matches your view!

The irony is that the variance in projections upholds the point I'm making, not you. That Cease has range of 0.7 WAR on his projections (a non-insignificant total, according to you) is a pretty large blight against his trade value, no?

The fact that teams don't know which Dylan Cease they are getting is precisely why I don't think any of them are making anything remotely close to the trade you've hinted at.

14 Mar 2024 15:51:15
OOf. One top 100 prospect and some guys with comically high variance.

The White Sox made a good deal for Cease, but you VASTLY over-estimated that deal.

Makes it kind of difficult to appreciate a good deal when Chi Sox' projection ceiling was the absolute moon+.

15 Mar 2024 06:17:39
Yeah not quite as much as these packages, but they still made out really well. 2 top 75s by Fangraphs and a really fun prospect in Zavala who could very well end up being the best player in the deal on either side. The list of guys that have put up a 140+ wRC+ in A-ball at 18 years old is insane.

Plus Wilson who has really good peripherals that can be flipped later.

Getz has taken arguably the worst farm in baseball and now has it comfortably in the top-10 in less than a year. This team is going to be bad, but I'm intrigued by the direction.

17 Mar 2024 19:42:41
Man, it's almost as if I was correct in saying that no one was paying the price tag you suggested for a depreciating asset of a pitcher.

Weird that I'm dead right yet again.

18 Mar 2024 02:54:18
Monumental W for you my man. Huge congrats.

07 Nov 2023 19:35:34
Mets Offseason

Trade Alonso

Sign Ohtani

Starting P
1. Sign Yamamoto
2. Trade for 1 of Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes

Relief P
1. Yuki Matsui
2. Yariel Rodríguez
3. One of Matt Moore / Craig Kimbrel / Robertson

Position Players
CF - Jung Hoo Lee


Lineup
CF - Jung Hoo Lee
RF - Marte
1b - McNeil
DH - Ohtani
SS - Lindor
LF - Nimmo
C - Alvarez
2b - Maurico
3b - Baty

Bench
Vinetos 1b/3b
Navarez C
DJ Stewart OF
Guillorme IF

Starters
Glasnow
Yamamoto
Senga
Quintana
Luccessi

Pen
Diaz CL
Kimbrel R
Yariel Rodríguez R
Brooks Raley L
Yuki Matsui L
Peterson LR
Megil LR

01 Aug 2023 19:06:49
ACTUAL TRADE:

Astros / Mets

Astros:
Justin Verlander


Mets:
Drew Gilbert OF
Ryan Clifford OF

I projected Verlander + cash for Clifford. This sellers market allowed Mets to land Clifford AND Gilbert! Great return for Mets. They are transforming that farm system.